High rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnant Ugandan women and association with stunting in infancy (preprint)

Background: SARS-CoV-2 has been well studied in resource-rich areas but many questions remain about effects of infection in African populations, particularly in vulnerable groups such as pregnant women. Methods: We describe SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin (Ig) G and IgM antibody responses and clinical outcomes in mother-infant dyads enrolled in malaria chemoprevention trials in Uganda. Results: From December 2020 to February 2022, among 400 unvaccinated pregnant women, serologic assessments revealed that 128 (32%) were seronegative for anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgM at enrollment and delivery, 80 (20%) were infected either prior to or early in pregnancy, and 192 (48%) were infected or re-infected with SARS-CoV-2 during pregnancy. We observed preferential binding of plasma IgG to Wuhan-Hu-1-like antigens in individuals seroconverting up to early 2021, and to Delta variant antigens in a subset of individuals in mid-2021. Breadth of IgG binding to all variants improved over time. No participants experienced severe respiratory illness during the study. SARS-CoV-2 infection in early pregnancy was associated with lower median length-for-age Z-score at age 3 months compared with no infection or late pregnancy infection (-1.54 versus -0.37 and -0.51, p=0.009). Conclusion: Pregnant Ugandan women experienced high levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection without severe respiratory illness. Variant-specific serology testing demonstrated evidence of antibody affinity maturation at the population level. Early gestational SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with shorter stature in early infancy.

The Breadth of the Neutralizing Antibody Response to Original SARS-CoV-2 Infection is Linked to the Presence of Long COVID Symptoms (preprint)

Background: The associations between longitudinal dynamics and the breadth of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody response with various Long COVID (LC) phenotypes prior to vaccination are not known. The capacity of antibodies to cross neutralize a variety of viral variants may be associated with ongoing pathology and persistent symptoms. Methods: We measured longitudinal neutralizing and cross-neutralizing antibody responses to pre- and post-SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants in participants infected during the early waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, prior to wide-spread rollout of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Cross sectional regression models adjusted for various clinical covariates and longitudinal mixed effects models were used to determine the impact of the breadth and rate of decay of neutralizing responses on the development of Long COVID symptoms in general, as well as LC phenotypes. Results: We identified several novel relationships between SARS-CoV-2 antibody neutralization and the presence of LC symptoms. Specifically, we show that, although neutralizing antibody responses to the original, infecting strain of SARS-CoV-2 were not associated with LC in cross-sectional analyses, cross-neutralization ID50 levels to the Omicron BA.5 variant approximately 4 months following acute infection was independently and significantly associated with greater odds of LC and with persistent gastrointestinal and neurological symptoms. Longitudinal modeling demonstrated significant associations in the overall levels and rates of decay of neutralization capacity with LC phenotypes. A higher proportion of participants had antibodies capable of neutralizing Omicron BA.5 compared with BA.1 or XBB.1.5 variants. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that relationships between various immune responses and LC are likely complex but may involve the breadth of antibody neutralization responses.

Autoantigen profiling reveals a shared post-COVID signature in fully recovered and Long COVID patients (preprint)

Some individuals do not return to baseline health following SARS-CoV-2 infection, leading to a condition known as Long COVID. The underlying pathophysiology of Long COVID remains unknown. Given that autoantibodies have been found to play a role in severity of COVID infection and certain other post-COVID sequelae, their potential role in Long COVID is important to investigate. Here we apply a well-established, unbiased, proteome-wide autoantibody detection technology (PhIP-Seq) to a robustly phenotyped cohort of 121 individuals with Long COVID, 64 individuals with prior COVID-19 who reported full recovery, and 57 pre-COVID controls. While a distinct autoreactive signature was detected which separates individuals with prior COVID infection from those never exposed to COVID, we did not detect patterns of autoreactivity that separate individuals with Long COVID relative to individuals fully recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection. These data suggest that there are robust alterations in autoreactive antibody profiles due to infection; however, no association of autoreactive antibodies and Long COVID was apparent by this assay.

Reconstructing the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in eastern Uganda through longitudinal serosurveillance in a malaria cohort (preprint)

ABSTRACT Importance Estimating the true burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection has been difficult in sub-Saharan Africa due to asymptomatic infections and inadequate testing capacity. Antibody responses from serologic surveys can provide an estimate of SARS-CoV-2 exposure at the population level. Objective To estimate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence, attack rates, and re-infection in eastern Uganda using serologic surveillance from 2020 to early 2022. Design Plasma samples from participants in the Program for Resistance, Immunology, Surveillance, and Modeling of Malaria in Uganda (PRISM) Border Cohort were obtained at four sampling intervals: October-November 2020; March-April 2021; August-September 2021; and February-March 2022. Setting: Tororo and Busia districts, Uganda. Participants 1,483 samples from 441 participants living in 76 households were tested. Each participant contributed up to 4 time points for SARS-CoV-2 serology, with almost half of all participants contributing at all 4 time points, and almost 90% contributing at 3 or 4 time points. Information on SARS-CoV-2 vaccination status was collected from participants, with the earliest reported vaccinations in the cohort occurring in May 2021. Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s) The main outcomes of this study were antibody responses to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein as measured with a bead-based serologic assay. Individual-level outcomes were aggregated to population-level SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence, attack rates, and boosting rates. Estimates were weighted by the local age distribution based on census data. Results By the end of the Delta wave and before widespread vaccination, nearly 70% of the study population had experienced SARS-CoV-2 infection. During the subsequent Omicron wave, 85% of unvaccinated, previously seronegative individuals were infected for the first time, and ∼50% or more of unvaccinated, already seropositive individuals were likely re-infected, leading to an overall 96% seropositivity in this population. Our results suggest a lower probability of re-infection in individuals with higher pre-existing antibody levels. We found evidence of household clustering of SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion. We found no significant associations between SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion and gender, household size, or recent Plasmodium falciparum malaria exposure. Conclusions and Relevance Findings: from this study are consistent with very high infection rates and re-infection rates for SARS-CoV-2 in a rural population from eastern Uganda throughout the pandemic.

Metagenomic next-generation sequencing to characterize etiologies of non-malarial fever in a cohort living in a high malaria burden area of Uganda (preprint)

Background: Causes of non-malarial fevers in sub-Saharan Africa remain understudied. We hypothesized that metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS), which allows for broad genomic-level detection of infectious agents in a biological sample, can systematically identify potential causes of non-malarial fevers. Methods and Findings: The 212 participants in this study were of all ages and were enrolled in a longitudinal malaria cohort in eastern Uganda. Between December 2020 and August 2021, respiratory swabs and plasma samples were collected at 313 study visits where participants presented with fever and were negative for malaria by microscopy. Samples were analyzed using CZ ID, a web-based platform for microbial detection in mNGS data. Overall, viral pathogens were detected at 123 of 313 visits (39%). SARS-CoV-2 was detected at 11 visits, from which full viral genomes were recovered from nine. Other prevalent viruses included Influenza A (14 visits), RSV (12 visits), and three of the four strains of seasonal coronaviruses (6 visits). Notably, 11 influenza cases occurred between May and July 2021, coinciding with when the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 was circulating in this population. The primary limitation of this study is that we were unable to estimate the contribution of bacterial microbes to non-malarial fevers, due to the difficulty of distinguishing bacterial microbes that were pathogenic from those that were commensal or contaminants. Conclusions: These results revealed the co-circulation of multiple viral pathogens likely associated with fever in the cohort during this time period. This study illustrates the utility of mNGS in elucidating the multiple causes of non-malarial febrile illness. A better understanding of the pathogen landscape in different settings and age groups could aid in informing diagnostics, case management, and public health surveillance systems.

An evaluation of the early impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Zambia's routine immunization program (preprint)

Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for both populations and healthcare systems are vast. In addition to morbidity and mortality from COVID-19, the pandemic also has disrupted local health systems, including reductions or delays in routine vaccination services and catch-up vaccination campaigns that could lead to outbreaks of other infectious diseases that result in an additional burden of disease and strain on the healthcare system. We evaluated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Zambia's routine childhood immunization program in 2020 using multiple sources of data. We relied on district-level administrative vaccination coverage data and Zambia's 2018 Demographic and Health Survey to project disruptions to routine childhood vaccination within the pandemic year 2020 (N=5,670). Next, we leveraged serological data to predict age-specific measles seroprevalence and assessed the impact of changes in vaccination coverage on measles outbreak risk in each district. We found minor disruptions to routine administration of measles-rubella and pentavalent vaccines in 2020. This was in part due to Zambia's Child Health Week held in June of 2020 which helped to reach children missed during the first six months of the year. We estimated that the two-month delay in a measles-rubella vaccination campaign, originally planned for September of 2020 but conducted in November of 2020 as a result of the pandemic, had little impact on modeled district-specific measles outbreak risks. The pandemic only minimally increased the number of children missed by measles-rubella and pentavalent vaccines in 2020. However, the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 transmission since our analysis concluded means efforts to maintain routine immunization services and minimize the risk of measles outbreaks will continue to be critical. Fortunately, the methodological framework developed in this analysis relied on routinely collected data and can be used to evaluate COVID-19 pandemic disruptions in Zambia following 2020 and in other countries or for other vaccines at a sub-national level.

TNFα-producing CD4+ T cells dominate the SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell response in COVID-19 outpatients and are associated with durable antibodies (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4+ T cells are likely important in immunity against COVID-19, but our understanding of CD4+ longitudinal dynamics following infection and specific features that correlate with the maintenance of neutralizing antibodies remains limited. We characterized SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4+ T cells in a longitudinal cohort of 109 COVID-19 outpatients. The quality of the SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4+ response shifted from cells producing IFN{gamma} to TNF+ from five days to four months post-enrollment, with IFN{gamma}-IL21-TNF+ CD4+ T cells the predominant population detected at later timepoints. Greater percentages of IFN{gamma}-IL21-TNF+ CD4+ T cells on day 28 correlated with SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies measured seven months post-infection ({rho}=0.4, P=0.01). mRNA vaccination following SARS-CoV-2 infection boosted both IFN{gamma} and TNF producing, spike protein-specific CD4+ T cells. These data suggest that SARS-CoV-2-specific, TNF-producing CD4+ T cells may play an important role in antibody maintenance following COVID-19.

Structural inequalities in the pathway to COVID-19 immunity (preprint)

Disease outbreaks often highlight existing inequalities and injustices within society. The COVID 19 pandemic has underscored long-existing health inequalities, both within countries and between the Global North and South. These disparities have been observed throughout the pandemic, from disparities in the severity and impact of the initial waves of cases to disparities in who was most protected during the roll-out of vaccination. As the Delta variant surges in many countries, structural inequalities shape the trajectory of the pandemic and exacerbate existing health disparities. In the age of vaccination, the double burden of disparities in both exposure to infection and vaccination coverage intersect to determine the current and future patterns of infection, immunity, and mortality. It is important to consider the ways in which these disparities, with overlapping but distinct drivers, interact to determine population-level immunity and the burden of COVID 19 in different communities. Individuals or communities can experience different pathways to immunity, whether through infection, vaccination, or both. Using San Francisco as a case study, we show how a seroepidemiological approach can illuminate disparities in the pathway to immunity.

SARS-CoV-2 serology across scales: a framework for unbiased seroprevalence estimation incorporating antibody kinetics and epidemic recency (preprint)

Serosurveys are a key resource for measuring SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence. A growing body of evidence suggests that asymptomatic and mild infections (together making up over 95% of all infections) are associated with lower antibody titers than severe infections. Antibody levels also peak a few weeks after infection and decay gradually. We developed a statistical approach to produce adjusted estimates of seroprevalence from raw serosurvey results that account for these sources of spectrum bias. We incorporate data on antibody responses on multiple assays from a post-infection longitudinal cohort, along with epidemic time series to account for the timing of a serosurvey relative to how recently individuals may have been infected. We applied this method to produce adjusted seroprevalence estimates from five large-scale SARS-CoV-2 serosurveys across different settings and study designs. We identify substantial differences between reported and adjusted estimates of over two-fold in the results of some surveys, and provide a tool for practitioners to generate adjusted estimates with pre-set or custom parameter values. While unprecedented efforts have been launched to generate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence estimates over this past year, interpretation of results from these studies requires properly accounting for both population-level epidemiologic context and individual-level immune dynamics.

Early immune responses have long-term associations with clinical, virologic, and immunologic outcomes in patients with COVID-19 (preprint)

The great majority of SARS-CoV-2 infections are mild and uncomplicated, but some individuals with initially mild COVID-19 progressively develop more severe symptoms. Furthermore, mild to moderate infections are an important contributor to ongoing transmission. There remains a critical need to identify host immune biomarkers predictive of clinical and virologic outcomes in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients. Leveraging longitudinal samples and data from a clinical trial of Peginterferon Lambda for treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infected outpatients, we used host proteomics and transcriptomics to characterize the trajectory of the immune response in COVID-19 patients within the first 2 weeks of symptom onset. We define early immune signatures, including plasma levels of RIG-I and the CCR2 ligands (MCP1, MCP2 and MCP3), associated with control of oropharyngeal viral load, the degree of symptom severity, and immune memory (including SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses and spike (S) protein-binding IgG levels). We found that individuals receiving BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccine had similar early immune trajectories to those observed in this natural infection cohort, including the induction of both inflammatory cytokines (e.g. MCP1) and negative immune regulators (e.g. TWEAK). Finally, we demonstrate that machine learning models using 8-10 plasma protein markers measured early within the course of infection are able to accurately predict symptom severity, T cell memory, and the antibody response post-infection.

Early immune responses have long-term associations with clinical, virologic, and immunologic outcomes in patients with COVID-19 (preprint)

The great majority of SARS-CoV-2 infections are mild and uncomplicated, but some individuals with initially mild COVID-19 progressively develop more severe symptoms. Furthermore, there is substantial heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2-specific memory immune responses following infection. There remains a critical need to identify host immune biomarkers predictive of clinical and immunologic outcomes in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients. Leveraging longitudinal samples and data from a clinical trial in SARS-CoV-2 infected outpatients, we used host proteomics and transcriptomics to characterize the trajectory of the immune response in COVID-19 patients within the first 2 weeks of symptom onset. We identify early immune signatures, including plasma RIG-I levels, early interferon signaling, and related cytokines (CXCL10, MCP1, MCP-2 and MCP-3) associated with subsequent disease progression, control of viral shedding, and the SARS-CoV-2 specific T cell and antibody response measured up to 7 months after enrollment. We found that several biomarkers for immunological outcomes are shared between individuals receiving BNT162b2 (Pfizer–BioNTech) vaccine and COVID-19 patients. Finally, we demonstrate that machine learning models using 7-10 plasma protein markers measured early within the course of infection are able to accurately predict disease progression, T cell memory, and the antibody response post-infection in a second, independent dataset.

SARS-CoV-2 antibody magnitude and detectability are driven by disease severity, timing, and assay (preprint)

Serosurveillance studies are critical for estimating SARS-CoV-2 transmission and immunity, but interpretation of results is currently limited by poorly defined variability in the performance of antibody assays to detect seroreactivity over time in individuals with different clinical presentations. We measured longitudinal antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 in plasma samples from a diverse cohort of 128 individuals over 160 days using 14 binding and neutralization assays. For all assays, we found a consistent and strong effect of disease severity on antibody magnitude, with fever, cough, hospitalization, and oxygen requirement explaining much of this variation. We found that binding assays measuring responses to spike protein had consistently higher correlation with neutralization than those measuring responses to nucleocapsid, regardless of assay format and sample timing. However, assays varied substantially with respect to sensitivity during early convalescence and in time to seroreversion. Variations in sensitivity and durability were particularly dramatic for individuals with mild infection, who had consistently lower antibody titers and represent the majority of the infected population, with sensitivities often differing substantially from reported test characteristics (e.g., amongst commercial assays, sensitivity at 6 months ranged from 33% for ARCHITECT IgG to 98% for VITROS Total Ig). Thus, the ability to detect previous infection by SARS-CoV-2 is highly dependent on the severity of the initial infection, timing relative to infection, and the assay used. These findings have important implications for the design and interpretation of SARS-CoV-2 serosurveillance studies.

Long-Term SARS-CoV-2-Specific Immune and Inflammatory Responses Across a Clinically Diverse Cohort of Individuals Recovering from COVID-19 (preprint)

A detailed understanding of long-term SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses and their relationship to humoral immunity and markers of inflammation in diverse groups of individuals representing the spectrum of COVID-19 illness and recovery is urgently needed. Data are also lacking as to whether and how adaptive immune and inflammatory responses differ in individuals that experience persistent symptomatic sequelae months following acute infection compared to those with complete, rapid recovery. We measured SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses, soluble markers of inflammation, and antibody levels and neutralization capacity longitudinally up to 9 months following infection in a diverse group of 70 individuals with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. The participants had varying degrees of initial disease severity and were enrolled in the northern California Long-term Impact of Infection with Novel Coronavirus (LIINC) cohort. Adaptive T cell responses remained remarkably stable in all participants across disease severity during the entire study interval. Whereas the magnitude of the early CD4+ T cell immune response is determined by the severity of initial infection (participants requiring hospitalization or intensive care), pre-existing lung disease was significantly associated with higher long-term SARS-CoV2-specific CD8+ T cell responses, independent of initial disease severity or age. Neutralizing antibody levels were strongly correlated with SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4+ T but not CD8+ T cell responses. Importantly, we did not identify substantial differences in long-term virus-specific T cell or antibody responses between participants with and without COVID-19-related symptoms that persist months after initial infection.

Citywide serosurveillance of the initial SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in San Francisco (preprint)

Serosurveillance provides a unique opportunity to quantify the proportion of the population that has been exposed to pathogens. Here, we developed and piloted Serosurveillance for Continuous, ActionabLe Epidemiologic Intelligence of Transmission (SCALE-IT), a platform through which we systematically tested remnant samples from routine blood draws in two major hospital networks in San Francisco for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies during the early months of the pandemic. Importantly, SCALE-IT allows for algorithmic sample selection and rich data on covariates by leveraging electronic medical record data. We estimated overall seroprevalence at 4.2%, corresponding to a case ascertainment rate of only 4.9%, and identified important heterogeneities by neighborhood, homelessness status, and race/ethnicity. Neighborhood seroprevalence estimates from SCALE-IT were comparable to local community-based surveys, while providing results encompassing the entire city that have been previously unavailable. Leveraging this hybrid serosurveillance approach has strong potential for application beyond this local context and for diseases other than SARS-CoV-2.

Universal PCR and antibody testing demonstrate little to no transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a rural community (preprint)

BackgroundThe absence of systematic surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 has curtailed accurate appraisal of transmission intensity. Our objective was to perform case detection of an entire rural community to quantify SARS-CoV-2 transmission using PCR and antibody testing. MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional survey of the prevalence and cumulative incidence of SARSCoV-2 infection in the rural town of Bolinas, California (population 1,620), four weeks following shelter-in-place orders. Residents and county essential workers were tested between April 20th - 24th, 2020. Prevalence by PCR and seroprevalence combining data from two forms of antibody testing were performed in parallel (Abbott ARCHITECT IgG to nucleocapsid protein and in-house IgG ELISA to the receptor binding domain). ResultsOf 1,891 participants, 1,312 were confirmed Bolinas residents (>80% community ascertainment). Zero participants were PCR positive. Assuming 80% sensitivity, it would have been unlikely to observe these results (p< 0.05) if there were > 3 active infections in the community. Based on antibody results, estimated prevalence of prior infection was 0.16% (95% CrI: 0.02%, 0.46%). Seroprevalence estimates using only one of the two tests would have been higher, with greater uncertainty. The positive predictive value (PPV) of a positive result on both tests was 99.11% (95% CrI: 95.75%, 99.94%), compared to PPV 44.19%-63.32% (95% CrI range 3.25%-98.64%) if only one test was utilized. ConclusionsFour weeks following shelter-in-place, active and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection in a rural Northern California community was extremely rare. In this low prevalence setting, use of two antibody tests increased the PPV and precision of seroprevalence estimates.